Why would India Win?

I had written this article just before the start of the Border Gavaskar Trophy and this was expected to be published in bcci.tv which didn't happen for some reason. As we head to close the series, find out how close I was on my predictions :)

Over the years the significance of an India Australia test series has risen dramatically for the sheer level of competition between the two teams and the huge attention it generates among the followers. In the age of Twenty20 and One Day internationals, a test match between India and Australia is followed with equal interest because of the intensity with which games are played. Every series has witnessed magical and historical turnarounds and those who perform have gone on to become bigger stars in their careers.

The upcoming four match test series between India and Australia (Border Gavaskar Trophy) is not going to be any different if the pre-series talks are anything to indicate. Sachin Tendulkar has already termed this series as bigger than the India-Pakistan series with Adam Gilchrist also claiming that the India-Australia contest has grown its iconic status over time. Players would be looking forward to perform in this series as much as the viewers are thinking about managing their own office routines so that they can witness another great contest. Everyone will have the same question in one’s mind: Who would win the Test series this time?

There is no doubt that Australia is the number 1 ranked test team in the world right now and it would take some planned and strategic effort on the part of India to beat them, however my own statistical analysis coupled with a close look on the composition of two teams gives India advantage over Australia.

Statistically, India has been a good test side in the last couple of years. Starting 2007, they have won against Bangladesh in Bangladesh (1-0 off 2), England in England (1-0 off 3), Pakistan in India (1-0 off 3) drawn against South Africa in India (1-1 off 3) and only lost to Srilanka in Srilanka recently (1-2 off 3) thanks largely to Mendis and Murali magic. In addition to this, India have lost a test series last time only in 2004-05 against Australia and before that only in 1999-00 against South Africa. This indicates that India have been a formidable side at home during the last decade and since the core of the team has not changed much in the last few years they have a better chance of regrouping themselves as a team and perform.

Many would argue that the recent loss in Sri Lanka puts India slightly at a disadvantage. However make no mistake as India would be playing this time in home conditions where they are completely different and Australia doesn’t have either a Mendis or a Murali who could pose the same kind of threat to India. In fact the loss in Sri Lanka would in fact have allowed India to think about their game and they would come better prepared to tackle Australia. Test side is an experienced side and the loss should have increased their hunger for victory rather than demoralizing them.

If you look at the composition of the teams, Australia lands in India this time with a team that is completely different from the ones in the past. There is no Langer, no Gilchrist, no Mcgrath, no Shane Warne and no Jason Gillespie. It is a completely different side with as many as 5 players (Jason Kreza, Bryce Mcgain, Doug Bollinger, Phil Jaques and Peter Slide) with little experience behind them. India is a fort of spin and Australia is coming up with two inexperienced spinners Bryce McGain, legbreak googly bowler (Only 19 first class games), and Jason Creza, off break bowler (only 23 first class games). It remains to be seen how effective they would be and with the team lacking on this front, it is also going to be interesting to see whether the fast bowlers mainly comprising of Brett Lee, Stuart Clark and Mitchell Johnson would be effective enough to get the Indian team all out twice in a test match.

On the contrary, India will have two world class spinners with them, Harbhajan Singh and Skipper Kumble who are even more dangerous when it comes to bowling in their home country. India’s fast bowlers mainly in the form of Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma have not done badly recently.

Batting wise, Australia has been a formidable size mainly because of its openers. When India toured Australia in the beginning of the year, the fragility of the openers putting up a decent start was exposed severely and it also had its impact on the middle order. A lot of responsibility would thus lay on the able shoulder of Ricky Ponting the skipper, who still has to play a good series in India as his last outings have not been as great as he would like them to be. This puts him under pressure as he would have a good chance to prove that there are no bunnies in cricket. With India’s nemesis Andrew Symonds not getting the India flight this time around, the middle order does not look to its glorious past on the paper and even though Hussey, Clark and Katich are all experienced and competitive players, they would certainly need to play at their best skill level to match up to Australia’s past. India at the same time would draw confidence from Missing Symonds, Gilchrist and other key players who have been proven match winners in the past.

India’s batting on the other hand looks settled with Virendra Sehwag and Gambhir in great forms recently. Even though Dravid has not been in the best of forms, but he would like to change things this time around and with Sachin and Laxman coming in the middle order, India’s batting order definitely looks more settled especially at home conditions.

If India starts the series well and puts Australia under pressure, they would have a big advantage. India’s good records at home, Australia’s little inexperienced and new side missing key players coupled with India’s far settled team composition thus give India a better chance to compete at home if they can play to their potential. If I had to predict the series outcome, I would give it India’s favour with 2-1 or even 2-0 with India winning the games in Mohali and Delhi. India will only have to save the Bangalore test where they have not done good for many years. Since Bangalore test if the first test, India must do reasonably well over there and a draw if not a win would be ideal to set the platform for the series.